The rise of Reform UK represents the most serious challenge to the United Kingdom’s established parties since the rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the Brexit Party.
But, until now, little if anything has been known about what drives public support for Reform UK. Who is voting for it and why? And what issues are Reform supporters most concerned about?
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Drawing on a unique survey of more than 3,400 self-identified supporters of Reform UK, the largest poll of the party’s supporters so far, this Legatum Institute briefing paper throws light, for the first time, on their social and political backgrounds and overriding concerns.
Support for Reform UK has a very distinctive social and political profile, with the party appealing most strongly to middle-aged and older people who live outside London, used to vote for the Conservative Party, and who strongly believe life in the UK today is much worse than it used to be.
Supporters of Reform UK are overwhelmingly concerned about illegal and legal immigration, which they perceive to be out-of-control and damaging Britain, though they also hold negative views of globalisation, Net Zero, and big business. Reform UK supporters are united by a general feeling of discontent with the UK’s current economic model, though their concerns about legal
and illegal immigration are paramount.
In conclusion, we suggest that unless these strong concerns about both illegal and legal immigration are addressed, concerns which are shared by much of the rest of the population, then there will remain ample space for Reform UK, or a party like it, in the years and decades ahead.
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DOWNLOADAbout the author
Prof. Matthew Goodwin: Senior Adviser
Matthew J. Goodwin is Professor of Political Science at the University of Kent and Senior Fellow at the Legatum Institute. He is the author of six books, including the Sunday Times bestsellers National Populism and Values, Voice and Virtue.
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