This September 2022 briefing presents original analysis from the Legatum Institute using the Social Metrics Commission’s approach to poverty measurement. This briefing considers the poverty impact of:

• The Government’s energy price guarantee, initially announced on the 8^th of September 2022.
• Changes to tax levels announced in the Government’s mini-Budget on the 23^rd  of September.

This briefing finds that:

1. The policies announced by the Government to-date will shield over a million people from poverty. This is almost entirely due to the introduction of the Energy Price Guarantee, which will protect over a million people from falling into poverty over the course of 2022/23.
2. However, poverty rates remain historically high, with 15.5 million people in the UK living in poverty. This would represent over a million and a half more in poverty than in the pre-pandemic baseline.
3. The measures announced on the 23^rd of September are likely to have a modest immediate impact on poverty upon their introduction in April 2023, reducing the number in poverty by 180,000. Longer-term growth effects of these policies could have impacts on poverty further down the line.